Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.     

Earth's rotation variations: a wavelet analysis

Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.     

Spatial analysis of water quality and its suitability in farming giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Negeri Sembilan region,Peninsular Malaysia

Finding potential sites for resilient prawn production in the tropical environment that also prevents wastage of natural resources is not an easy task. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water quality suitability for prawn farming in Negeri Sembilan of Peninsular Malaysia based on Geographic Information System (GIS). To achieve this goal, numerous criteria including sources of water, water temperature, water pH, sources of pollution, salinity, soil texture and availability of phytoplankton criteria were considered for the modelling process. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was performed to standardize the criteria and the weighting process. The weighted overlay of indicators and results were accomplished by applying the Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method in GIS. It was indicated that the Negeri Sembilan area has potential for prawn farming. The results showed that about 25 per cent (163 056.93 ha) of the area was most suitable for prawn farming, about 58 per cent (384 656.88 ha) was considered moderately suitable, while 18 per cent (117 633.49 ha) was regarded as least suitable. The study concluded that the multi‐criteria decision analysis of water quality for prawn farming is vital for regional economic planning in the Negeri Sembilan area and also significant when establishing a model for aquaculture development.     

Petrogenesis of low-δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O quartz porphyry dykes,Koegel Fontein complex,South Africa

This paper investigates the origin of low-δ¹⁸O quartz porphyry dykes associated with the 144–133 Ma Koegel Fontein Igneous Complex, which was intruded during the initial phase of breakup of Africa and South America. The 25-km diameter Rietpoort Granite is the largest and youngest phase of activity, and is roofed by a 10-km diameter pendant of gneiss. Quartz porphyry (QP) dykes, up to 15 m in width, strike NW–SE across the complex. The QP dykes that intruded outside the granite have similar quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values (average 8.0‰, ± 0.7, n?=?33) to the granite (average 8.3?±?1.0, n?=?7). The QP dykes that intruded the roof pendant have quartz phenocrysts with more variable δ¹⁸O values (average 1.6‰, ± 2.1, n?=?55). In some cases quartz phenocrysts have δ¹⁸O values as low as ? 2.5‰. The variation in δ¹⁸O value within the quartz crystal population of individual dykes is small relative to the overall range, and core and rim material from individual quartz phenocrysts in three samples are identical within error. There is no evidence that quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values have been affected by fluid–rock interaction. Based on a ?_quartz?magma value of 0.6‰, magma δ¹⁸O values must have been as low as ? 3.1‰. Samples collected along the length of the two main QP dykes that traverse the roof pendant have quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values that range from +?1.1 to +?4.6‰, and ? 2.3 to +?5.6‰, respectively. These δ¹⁸O values correlate negatively (r = ? 0.96) with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, which can be explained by the event that lowered δ¹⁸O values of the source being older than the dykes. We suggest that the QP dykes were fed by magma produced by partial melting of gneiss, which had been variably altered at high temperature by ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric water during global glaciation at ~?550 Ma. The early melts had variable δ¹⁸O value but as melt pockets interconnected during melting, the δ¹⁸O values approached that of average gneiss. Variable quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values in the same dyke can be explained by vertical emplacement, at variable rates of ascent along the dyke. The lateral variation in quartz, and hence magma δ¹⁸O value at a particular point along a single dyke would depend on the rate of ascent of magma at that point along the dyke, and the ‘age’ of the particular magma batch.     

Crystal nucleation and growth produced by continuous decompression of Pinatubo magma

High-temperature decompression experiments demonstrate that crystal textures preserve a record of the style and rate of magmatic ascent. To reinforce this link, we performed a suite of isothermal decompression experiments using starting material from the climactic 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We decompressed experiments from 220 MPa to final, quench pressures of 75 or 30 MPa using continuous decompression rates of 100, 30, 10, 3, 1, and 0.3 MPa h^?1. Amphibole, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase crystallized during the experiments, with plagioclase microlites dominating the assemblage. Total microlite number densities range from 10^7.6±0.4 up to 10^8.2±0.2 cm^?3, with plagioclase accounting for up to 65% of the total number. Plagioclase microlite area increased systematically from 19?±?8 to 937?±?487 µm² with increasing experiment duration. Our textures provide time-integrated records of crystal kinetics. Average nucleation and areal growth rates of plagioclase are highest in the fastest decompressions (~?10^7.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 10.1?±?4.1 µm² h^?1, respectively) and more than an order of magnitude lower in the slowest experiments (~?10^5.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 0.8?±?0.2 µm² h^?1, respectively). Both nucleation and growth rates are highest at high degrees of disequilibrium. We find that peak supersaturation-dependent instantaneous rates are generally more than an order of magnitude faster than average rates. We use those instantaneous nucleation and growth rates to introduce an iterative model to evaluate the effects of different decompression rates, decompression paths (continuous, single-step or multistep), and the presence of phenocrysts on final crystallinity and microlite size distribution.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Spatial variability in specific discharge and streamwater chemistry during low flows: Results from snapshot sampling campaigns in eleven Swiss catchments

Catchments consist of distinct landforms that affect the storage and release of subsurface water. Certain landforms may be the main contributors to streamflow during extended dry periods, and these may vary for different catchments in a given region. We present a unique dataset from snapshot field campaigns during low‐flow conditions in 11 catchments across Switzerland to illustrate this. The catchments differed in size (10 to 110 km²), varied from predominantly agricultural lowlands to Alpine areas, and covered a range of physical characteristics. During each snapshot campaign, we jointly measured streamflow and collected water samples for the analysis of major ions and stable water isotopes. For every sampling location (basin), we determined several landscape characteristics from national geo‐datasets, including drainage area, elevation, slope, flowpath length, dominant land use, and geological and geomorphological characteristics, such as the lithology and fraction of quaternary deposits. The results demonstrate very large spatial variability in specific low‐flow discharge and water chemistry: Neighboring sampling locations could differ significantly in their specific discharge, isotopic composition, and ion concentrations, indicating that different sources contribute to streamflow during extended dry periods. However, none of the landscape characteristics that we analysed could explain the spatial variability in specific discharge or streamwater chemistry in multiple catchments. This suggests that local features determine the spatial differences in discharge and water chemistry during low‐flow conditions and that this variability cannot be assessed a priori from available geodata and statistical relations to landscape characteristics. The results furthermore suggest that measurements at the catchment outlet during low‐flow conditions do not reflect the heterogeneity of the different source areas in the catchment that contribute to streamflow.     

Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

Tracing variability of run‐off generation in mountainous permafrost of semi‐arid north‐eastern Mongolia

The headwaters of mountainous, discontinuous permafrost regions in north‐eastern Mongolia are important water resources for the semi‐arid country, but little is known about hydrological processes there. Run‐off generation on south‐facing slopes, which are devoid of permafrost, has so far been neglected and is totally unknown for areas that have been affected by recent forest fires. To fill this knowledge gap, the present study applied artificial tracers on a steppe‐vegetated south‐facing and on two north‐facing slopes, burned and unburned. Combined sprinkling and dye tracer experiments were used to visualize processes of infiltration and water fluxes in the unsaturated zone. On the unburned north‐facing slope, rapid and widespread infiltration through a wet organic layer was observed down to the permafrost. On the burned profile, rapid infiltration occurred through a combusted organic and underlying mineral layer. Stained water seeped out at the bottom of both profiles suggesting a general tendency to subsurface stormflow (SSF). Ongoing SSF could directly be studied 24 h after a high‐intensity rainfall event on a 55‐m hillslope section in the burned forest. Measurements of water temperature proved the role of the permafrost layer as a base horizon for SSF. Repeated tracer injections allowed direct insights into SSF dynamics: A first injection suggested rather slow dispersive subsurface flow paths; whereas 18 h later, a second injection traced a more preferential flow system with 20 times quicker flow velocities. We speculate that these pronounced SSF dynamics are limited to burned slopes where a thermally insulating organic layer is absent. On three south‐facing soil profiles, the applied tracer remained in the uppermost 5 cm of a silt‐rich mineral soil horizon. No signs of preferential infiltration could be found, which suggested reduced biological activity under a harsh, dry and cold climate. Instead, direct observations, distributed tracers and charcoal samples provided evidence for the occurrence of overland flow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.